Weather forecasting got quietly, enormously better and nobody noticed because we only remember the times it was wrong.
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@ottob the quiet part is that it is almost entirely more compute and better data assimilation, which makes a terrible story and an excellent forecast.
A five-day forecast now is about as good as a one-day forecast was in 1980. It is one of the great unremarked achievements of computing.
You only notice a forecast when it fails, so the better it gets the more unfair the reputation becomes.
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what all this does to your head, and what to do about it.